Arizona Season Three opened with perfect weather, three stages and seven enthusiastic shooters.
Michael B. won The Pink Spurs for the first Monday Match. Michael blew away the competition in both time and fewest Points Down. He didn't just win, he won by a country mile! Michael's lowest total time of 114.61 was over 8 seconds faster than the second place time. Likewise, Michael's fewest Point Down of 23 was 22 points fewer than the next closest total. Congratulations, Michael, that was awesome shooting!
For the first time in recent memory, the standings in total adjusted time were also the same as the final standing Total Points Down. Finishing first was Michael B.; 2nd, John P.; 3rd, Tony G.; 4th, Pat D.; 5th, Tom B. and 6th. Gary W.
John P. finished first in Stage #1 (Pumping Lead on Route 66); Michael Boyle was tops in Stage #2 (Stand & Deliver) and Tony G. was number one in Stage #3 (Shooting Skills Exercise #1).
Note that each shooter's fastest time in Stage #1 was used for the final calculations of both total time and Points Down.
We did forget a couple of things for this match: 1) The Pledge prior to the Match and 2) To take photos. We won't make those mistakes again this season, you can bet on that!
Thank You all for a Great First Monday Match! We will see you again on December 2nd.
Note that we also put the results into our Google Drive as a PDF that you should be able to download and print. Try this link. If it doesn't work, email me and I will send you the file.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9xPHiI5Jek3NDg5SWhsOW4xalE/edit?usp=sharing
Monday, November 18, 2013
Friday, November 1, 2013
February 2014 Monday Match Site
The normal Monday Match Site is unavailable during February so we have chosen an alternate site not far away. The alternate site will be about 1.4 miles farther for Camp Verde and Rimrock participants, almost an identical distance for Cottonwood and Cornville participants and about 2.5 miles shorter for Sedona participants arriving via The Beaverhead Road.
The major advantage of the alternate site is an awesome backstop, probably the best backstop we have used in 3 seasons. The backstop is almost immediately behind the Course of Fire area and rises at least 15 feet above grade level at the Course of Fire Area. An additional advantage is that the dirt road to the site is in very good condition.
There are several disadvantages to the alternate site, including:
The major advantage of the alternate site is an awesome backstop, probably the best backstop we have used in 3 seasons. The backstop is almost immediately behind the Course of Fire area and rises at least 15 feet above grade level at the Course of Fire Area. An additional advantage is that the dirt road to the site is in very good condition.
There are several disadvantages to the alternate site, including:
- Small Course of Fire Area will limit or preclude movement.
- The area is sloped so targets will need to be adjusted to remain level for the shooter's sight plane.
- Set up of complex stages will not be possible
- Parking is difficult but "doable."
- The site is only three-tenths of a mile from The Beaverhead Road.
Even though the alternate site is relatively close to The Beaverhead Road, participants and their vehicles will be fairly well screened by vegetation. For example, we doubt that the gear truck will even be visible from The Beaverhead Road.
We spent several hours on January 26 inspecting various possible alternate sites. All sites along Old 179 southwest of the USFS Beaverhead Day Use area were deemed unsuitable for various reasons. Other sites inspected on the southwest flank of House Mountain were also deemed unsuitable for various reasons.
Although the alternate site is not optimal, it is suitable and safe. We will adjust the Monday Match Stage Designs to conform with the Course of Fire constraints.
It should be noted the alternate site is ideally suited for a BUG Match so the only problematic Stage Design issues will be encountered in the second February Monday Match. The BUG Match Stage Designs will be optimized for the favorable geometry of the backstop.
Hopefully, we will have time during the upcoming week for a little holistic low impact landscape management work at the site.
Captions are below each graphic and photo.
The yellow push pin is the alternate site. The left red dot is The Beaverhead Road intersection with
The Cornville Road. The right red dot is 1.1 miles from The Beaverhead Road intersection.
The push pin is .3 mile from the turn off The Beaverhead Road.
The yellow push pin is the gear truck parking area. The red rectangle is the Course of Fire area.
The three green triangles will be the stage locations. The irregular blue area is parking for participants.
The right red line is the top of the backstop. The long line is the distance from the top of the backstop to
The Beaverhead Road--precisely a half mile. We will have the route into the site well marked for the Match.
The backstop rises sharply just to the left of the frame of view. You will be impressed with the backstop.
This is looking back in a Course of Fire area toward where the gear truck will be parked.
This is looking across the three Course of Fire areas.
I couldn't get a good shot of the backstop looking from the firing line because
the sun was right in my camera lens. Suffice to say it is a Most Excellent backstop.
Sunday, September 1, 2013
Will The Streak continue?
We haven't missed a Monday Match because of weather in more than two years! We have been on an amazing roll during that time. As we noted in early January, the longer The Streak runs, the more likely it is to end. It's like flipping a coin and coming up heads 30 times in a row. Sooner or later, it's going to come up tails, even though the odds are always 50-50 per flip. That's the way it is with such streaks of luck.
So, will The Streak end for the February 3rd Monday Match #6? Or will The Streak continue? Right now, we'd have to say it's still the classic 50-50 odds. A case can be made that The Streak will end. Likewise, a case can be made The Streak will continue. Naturally, we will be glued to weather forecasts several times each day as this week evolves. And, naturally, we will be posting up data, forecasts, speculation and SWAGs here as the week evolves.
They say there's only two type of people who forecast weather: newcomers and fools. Well, we ain't newcomers so that only leaves one category for us to fall into.
The format for this particular blog post will be very simple. The narrative above will remain in place. Below this narrative, you will find a series of updates. Before each update will be the time and date of the update in parenthesis. Therefore, the most recent update will always be at the top of the blog post. Got that? Ok, here goes:
(UPDATE @ 9:30 am - 02.02.2014)
Well, in the ebb and flow of weather forecasting, it is now beginning to look like it will indeed be precipitating Monday morning. The graphic above shows the time period ending at 11 am Monday. Meanwhile, the Flagstaff NWS says:
(UPDATE @ 6:45 am - 01.31.2014)
The Monday QPF is looking dry. Meanwhile, the Flagstaff NWS has this to say about the system moving through Monday: "THE PARENT WAVE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE." We are proceeding as if the Monday Match will be staged according to plan but "The Call" won't be made until Sunday. Below is the full NWS Morning Discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS FAST
MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. A COOL AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A VERY BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL S/WV
TROUGHS IN THIS BROADER PATTERN WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME SPAN...STARTING TODAY.
A S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...DECENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DECENT JET-LEVEL FORCING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS A
RESULT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN TODAY...MOSTLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF IN
THE RAIN-SHADOWED REGIONS OF THE LCR. ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL END MOST SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
BUT A BETTER MICROPHYSICAL PROFILE AND A COLDER AIRMASS. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE DUE
MONDAY. THIS THIRD WAVE WILL BE A SIMILAR SCENARIO...A COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS...BUT THE PARENT WAVE IS
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE.
(UPDATE @ 5 pm - 01.30.2014)
Note the bold, underlined, italic words. This is the crux of the matter. Frankly, I think the NWS is exaggerating the system. My intuition is telling me is all bluff and no blow. However, we have to continue to wait until Sunday to make "The Call."
(UPDATE @ 8:30 am - 01.30.2014)
.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE IS ON THE WAY OUT TODAY AS AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPINGES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A
FRACTURING AND RETROGRADING HUDSON BAY VORTEX TO ALLOW MORE ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE TO
AFFECT OUR AREA IS SEEN CROSSING THROUGH 130W THIS MORNING WITH A
DECENT MOISTURE FETCH JUST TO THE SOUTH. PRESSURE FALLS WITH THIS
WAVE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY AND AN ADVISORY
IS ALREADY OUT.
THE MOISTURE STREAM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY...WITH
DYNAMICS AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVING
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS STRUCTURE BY FRIDAY AND THE
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY BE ROBBED BY THE SIERRAS...BUT ENOUGH WILL
REMAIN TO BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER TRAILING
SYSTEM DUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM...BUT A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
PAVE THE WAY FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
A THIRD SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE TRACK FOR
THIS THIRD SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
(UPDATE @ 4 pm - 01.29.2014)
(UPDATE @ 10 am - 01.29.2014)
Well, it's still a little sketchy but we are feeling better about staging the Monday Match. We don't think it's going to be that wet Monday. Here's the latest chatter:
(UPDATE @ 8:45 am - 01.28.2014)
(UPDATE @ 9:30 am - 01.27.2014)
Below is a portion of the narrative from this morning's most recent Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) posted by the Flagstaff NWS Office in Bellemont. AFDs are updated several times each day.
THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD FOR SEVERAL WEAK PACIFIC STORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ALTHOUGH THIS WEAKENING IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO THE EXTENDED ARIZONA DRY SPELL...BY NO MEANS DOES THIS CHANGE LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PATTERN. FOR NOW WE ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A RATHER WIDE ARRAY OF POTENTIAL POSSIBILITIES...MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS. HOWEVER THE LONGER RANGE MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL POSSIBILITY OF THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH CONTINUED DRY TO NEARLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
Source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDFGZ&wfo=FGZ
(UPDATE @ 7:30 pm - 01.26.2014)
We prepped and and posted to Facebook several graphics with commentary Sunday evening. Rather than attempt to repost each graphic here, we are including a screen shot and a link to the Facebook photo album. You do not need to be a Facebooker to see the graphics and read the captions.
Here is the link to the album. Each graphic is captioned:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.259313814231892.1073741928.100004598250156&type=1&l=73baae9d08
So, will The Streak end for the February 3rd Monday Match #6? Or will The Streak continue? Right now, we'd have to say it's still the classic 50-50 odds. A case can be made that The Streak will end. Likewise, a case can be made The Streak will continue. Naturally, we will be glued to weather forecasts several times each day as this week evolves. And, naturally, we will be posting up data, forecasts, speculation and SWAGs here as the week evolves.
They say there's only two type of people who forecast weather: newcomers and fools. Well, we ain't newcomers so that only leaves one category for us to fall into.
The format for this particular blog post will be very simple. The narrative above will remain in place. Below this narrative, you will find a series of updates. Before each update will be the time and date of the update in parenthesis. Therefore, the most recent update will always be at the top of the blog post. Got that? Ok, here goes:
(UPDATE @ 9:30 am - 02.02.2014)
Well, in the ebb and flow of weather forecasting, it is now beginning to look like it will indeed be precipitating Monday morning. The graphic above shows the time period ending at 11 am Monday. Meanwhile, the Flagstaff NWS says:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC LOW TRACKING SOUTH DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ARIZONA.
We are still leaning toward staging the match but will not make "The Call" until Sunday evening when the forecasting data for tomorrow is much better defined.
(UPDATE @ 6:45 am - 01.31.2014)
The Monday QPF is looking dry. Meanwhile, the Flagstaff NWS has this to say about the system moving through Monday: "THE PARENT WAVE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE." We are proceeding as if the Monday Match will be staged according to plan but "The Call" won't be made until Sunday. Below is the full NWS Morning Discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS FAST
MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. A COOL AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A VERY BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL S/WV
TROUGHS IN THIS BROADER PATTERN WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME SPAN...STARTING TODAY.
A S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...DECENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DECENT JET-LEVEL FORCING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS A
RESULT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN TODAY...MOSTLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF IN
THE RAIN-SHADOWED REGIONS OF THE LCR. ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL END MOST SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
BUT A BETTER MICROPHYSICAL PROFILE AND A COLDER AIRMASS. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE DUE
MONDAY. THIS THIRD WAVE WILL BE A SIMILAR SCENARIO...A COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS...BUT THE PARENT WAVE IS
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE.
(UPDATE @ 5 pm - 01.30.2014)
Note the bold, underlined, italic words. This is the crux of the matter. Frankly, I think the NWS is exaggerating the system. My intuition is telling me is all bluff and no blow. However, we have to continue to wait until Sunday to make "The Call."
A BREAK IN THE MAIN THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AROUND A MONDAY TIME-FRAME. BEYOND...SEE NO STRONG REASONS TO STRAY FAR FROM COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
(UPDATE @ 8:30 am - 01.30.2014)
.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE IS ON THE WAY OUT TODAY AS AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPINGES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A
FRACTURING AND RETROGRADING HUDSON BAY VORTEX TO ALLOW MORE ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE TO
AFFECT OUR AREA IS SEEN CROSSING THROUGH 130W THIS MORNING WITH A
DECENT MOISTURE FETCH JUST TO THE SOUTH. PRESSURE FALLS WITH THIS
WAVE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY AND AN ADVISORY
IS ALREADY OUT.
THE MOISTURE STREAM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY...WITH
DYNAMICS AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVING
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS STRUCTURE BY FRIDAY AND THE
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY BE ROBBED BY THE SIERRAS...BUT ENOUGH WILL
REMAIN TO BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER TRAILING
SYSTEM DUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM...BUT A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
PAVE THE WAY FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
A THIRD SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE TRACK FOR
THIS THIRD SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
(UPDATE @ 4 pm - 01.29.2014)
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PROBABLE FRIDAY ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AZ/UT STATE LINE. TWO ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT OUR STATE. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE IN WESTERN AZ SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE FORECAST LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS ARE A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS...AND ARE LESS THAN 0.10 FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD. ON SUNDAY...PROGS SHOW SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE RIM. WE HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS BELOW 6500 FEET. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME AND WE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FOR NOW. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR LOWER THIS WEEKEND THAN WHAT WE HAVE ENJOYED MOST OF THIS MONTH.
(UPDATE @ 10 am - 01.29.2014)
Well, it's still a little sketchy but we are feeling better about staging the Monday Match. We don't think it's going to be that wet Monday. Here's the latest chatter:
.SYNOPSIS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING THURSDAY WILL PRECEDE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS STARTING EARLY FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRESSION OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MANY WEAKER WAVES MOVING THROUGH A MESSY MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH STORM IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED...BUT THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT SHOULD BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA.And here's the QPF for that time period:
(UPDATE @ 8:45 am - 01.28.2014)
A PATTERN SHIFT DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...SHIFTS WEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING TOWARD THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER. THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN. THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY BOTH OF THESE STORMS WILL ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON THE DRYNESS. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AT BEST.
(UPDATE @ 9:30 am - 01.27.2014)
Below is a portion of the narrative from this morning's most recent Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) posted by the Flagstaff NWS Office in Bellemont. AFDs are updated several times each day.
THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD FOR SEVERAL WEAK PACIFIC STORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ALTHOUGH THIS WEAKENING IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO THE EXTENDED ARIZONA DRY SPELL...BY NO MEANS DOES THIS CHANGE LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PATTERN. FOR NOW WE ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A RATHER WIDE ARRAY OF POTENTIAL POSSIBILITIES...MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS. HOWEVER THE LONGER RANGE MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL POSSIBILITY OF THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH CONTINUED DRY TO NEARLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
Source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDFGZ&wfo=FGZ
(UPDATE @ 7:30 pm - 01.26.2014)
We prepped and and posted to Facebook several graphics with commentary Sunday evening. Rather than attempt to repost each graphic here, we are including a screen shot and a link to the Facebook photo album. You do not need to be a Facebooker to see the graphics and read the captions.
Here is the link to the album. Each graphic is captioned:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.259313814231892.1073741928.100004598250156&type=1&l=73baae9d08
Monday, March 18, 2013
Monday Match #9
Al took the Pink Spurs for the Monday Match Number Nine. Aided by a blazing fast reshoot of the Bandido Stage #2, Al's final total time came in at 83.10. Al also took the honors for Most Accurate Shooter, logging a mere 7 Points Down. Congratulations and WAY TO GO, Al!
Everyone shot very well during Match Number 9. Each and every shooter had both great stages and some awesome targets within each stage. Brad gets the Most Improved Award for the reshoot of Stage #2, dropping his time by a whopping 16.77 seconds! Al took runner up in Most Improved by shooting 9.84 seconds faster on his second attempt.
Such great leaps faster in shooting times are proof positive that practice pays off.
Al, Brad and Tony get extra mention because they each put at least two shots onto target of the Texas Good Ol' Boy Stage. Tony and John were a mere .76 one-hundreths of a second apart on the BBQ stage and both scored zero Points Down.
Tom harked back to his rootin' tootin' Dance Hall Days by taking first place in the Texas Two-Step. That was HOT shootin' Tom!
In keeping with our match traditions, we used the lowest time in two attempts of Stage #2 to calculate the Match Total Time.
Although it is not on the spreadsheet below, here are the times for the first shot in the Texas Good Ol' Boy:
Al--4.82
Tony--6.66
John--6.84
Tom--7.88
Brad--9.27
Michael--9.46
Thank You all for making this Match so much fun. Thanks also for your $20 in donations. We will try to get some new target tape delivered prior to the next match.
There are only two more matches for this season--April Fool's Day and April 15th. We look forward to your participation in the final upcoming matches. Happy Shooting & Many Cheers, jp
As always, you can click on the graphic below to see a larger, more readable version.
Everyone shot very well during Match Number 9. Each and every shooter had both great stages and some awesome targets within each stage. Brad gets the Most Improved Award for the reshoot of Stage #2, dropping his time by a whopping 16.77 seconds! Al took runner up in Most Improved by shooting 9.84 seconds faster on his second attempt.
Such great leaps faster in shooting times are proof positive that practice pays off.
Al, Brad and Tony get extra mention because they each put at least two shots onto target of the Texas Good Ol' Boy Stage. Tony and John were a mere .76 one-hundreths of a second apart on the BBQ stage and both scored zero Points Down.
Tom harked back to his rootin' tootin' Dance Hall Days by taking first place in the Texas Two-Step. That was HOT shootin' Tom!
In keeping with our match traditions, we used the lowest time in two attempts of Stage #2 to calculate the Match Total Time.
Although it is not on the spreadsheet below, here are the times for the first shot in the Texas Good Ol' Boy:
Al--4.82
Tony--6.66
John--6.84
Tom--7.88
Brad--9.27
Michael--9.46
Thank You all for making this Match so much fun. Thanks also for your $20 in donations. We will try to get some new target tape delivered prior to the next match.
There are only two more matches for this season--April Fool's Day and April 15th. We look forward to your participation in the final upcoming matches. Happy Shooting & Many Cheers, jp
As always, you can click on the graphic below to see a larger, more readable version.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Yellow Rose of Texas Two Step
Greetings, Montezuma Marksmen! You already heard we were planning a Mystery Stage called "The Yellow Rose of Texas Two Step" for our "All Texas" Monday Match #8 on March 18.
We call it a Mystery Stage because it's a Mystery to us, too, at least until we get it designed. Today on March 15, it's no longer a Mystery Stage--it's put together and ready to go.
First, allow me to introduce you to Bearverly, your date for the Big Dance in Lubbuck, Texas.
You are in the Elk's Lodge doing the Two Step as the South Side Locos perform a stirring rendition of "The Yellow Rose of Texas." It's your and Bearverly's favorite song!
Suddenly, the revenge-minded Brazos Boyz burst through the Elk's Lodge front doors intend on wrecking havoc and causing much mayhem.
You cannot let your date down and must hold Bearverly tight while continuing to do the two-step as you engage the Brazos Boys.
Facing downrange, shooter loads with eight rounds and makes ready. The Safety Office then hands Bearverly to the shooter. Shooter must hold Bearverly's hand as shown above.
At the buzzer, shooter must take to steps to the left for left-handed shooters or two steps to the right for right handed shooters. After second step, Shooter will stop and then fire two rounds at T1. Shooter then takes two more steps, stops and fires two rounds at T2; two steps, stop and two rounds at T3; two steps and stop and two rounds at T4. Targets are spaced at 5-7-10-12 yards from the "two-step-line."
(NOTE: Range will be marked so that targets can easily be moved left or right according to the "left or right handedness" of the shooter.)
Foot fault lines will be clearly marked. The shooter will receive a procedural for doing the two-step procedural incorrectly or for dropping Bearverly.
At this time, the shooter holds their pistol in the low ready position while Safety Office removes Bearverly from the shooter's grasp. Then and only then may the shooter show clear, etc. according to the Safety Officer's instructions.
This is a Limited Vickers stage. If Nancy comes with her revolver, everyone will load with six rounds and we will use three targets instead of four.
We call it a Mystery Stage because it's a Mystery to us, too, at least until we get it designed. Today on March 15, it's no longer a Mystery Stage--it's put together and ready to go.
First, allow me to introduce you to Bearverly, your date for the Big Dance in Lubbuck, Texas.
You are in the Elk's Lodge doing the Two Step as the South Side Locos perform a stirring rendition of "The Yellow Rose of Texas." It's your and Bearverly's favorite song!
Suddenly, the revenge-minded Brazos Boyz burst through the Elk's Lodge front doors intend on wrecking havoc and causing much mayhem.
You cannot let your date down and must hold Bearverly tight while continuing to do the two-step as you engage the Brazos Boys.
Facing downrange, shooter loads with eight rounds and makes ready. The Safety Office then hands Bearverly to the shooter. Shooter must hold Bearverly's hand as shown above.
At the buzzer, shooter must take to steps to the left for left-handed shooters or two steps to the right for right handed shooters. After second step, Shooter will stop and then fire two rounds at T1. Shooter then takes two more steps, stops and fires two rounds at T2; two steps, stop and two rounds at T3; two steps and stop and two rounds at T4. Targets are spaced at 5-7-10-12 yards from the "two-step-line."
(NOTE: Range will be marked so that targets can easily be moved left or right according to the "left or right handedness" of the shooter.)
Foot fault lines will be clearly marked. The shooter will receive a procedural for doing the two-step procedural incorrectly or for dropping Bearverly.
At this time, the shooter holds their pistol in the low ready position while Safety Office removes Bearverly from the shooter's grasp. Then and only then may the shooter show clear, etc. according to the Safety Officer's instructions.
This is a Limited Vickers stage. If Nancy comes with her revolver, everyone will load with six rounds and we will use three targets instead of four.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Monday Match #8
There's a New Winner of The Pink Spurs! Gary will be the proud custodian and wearer of the coveted Pink Spurs after his razor thin win of Monday Match #8. Congratulations, Gary, you were shooting "in the zone" during that match and reduced your Points Down.
Gary edged out John by .28 one-hundredths of a second to lay claim to The Pink Spurs.
It was a very fun and interesting match.Michael totally smoked everyone in the Support Hand Shooting. His raw average shooting time for five shots was an incredible 1.36 seconds, well over a half second better than the next nearest shooter. (See scoring note about Stage #1 at end of post.)
For Stage #2, we used the 2nd attempt at this stage with the six targets. This equalized everyone's shooting on this stage. Gary finished first in this stage, edging Tony by 42 one-hundredths of a second.
Gary really leaped out ahead on Stage #3, shooting it in 17.43, more than seconds faster that Tony's 19.78. Tony was the only shooter to record zero Points Down on Stage #3.
As you know, we shot Stage #4 twice. For the purposes of the match score, I took each shooters best time whether it was recorded on Attempte #1 or #2. Everyone shot this stages very accurately. Three shooters managed to shoot this stages with zero points down and the other shooter only had one point down.
Stage #1 Scoring Note. For the purposes of the individual stage, we used the fastest average time. For the purposes of the total match score, we used the total time of all five attempts, plus the total points down. WHY? Well, the points down were accumulated during five shots so they should be added to the total time. Adding them to the best average presents a somewhat skewed perspective of the time. The match standings remain the same no matter which way we added the scores for Stage #1. We just thought that using the full shooting time was more representative of the overall match, however, the results are the same.
We may not be able to process the GoPro video footage because of the camera setting we used. The file sizes are too large. One file, for example, is over 1,5 GIGS! The smaller file was 200 Megabytes! Next time we will set the video down to a lower resolution and hopefully produce files that won't crash our computer.
Thanks for making Monday Match #8 such a great success!
Gary edged out John by .28 one-hundredths of a second to lay claim to The Pink Spurs.
It was a very fun and interesting match.Michael totally smoked everyone in the Support Hand Shooting. His raw average shooting time for five shots was an incredible 1.36 seconds, well over a half second better than the next nearest shooter. (See scoring note about Stage #1 at end of post.)
For Stage #2, we used the 2nd attempt at this stage with the six targets. This equalized everyone's shooting on this stage. Gary finished first in this stage, edging Tony by 42 one-hundredths of a second.
Gary really leaped out ahead on Stage #3, shooting it in 17.43, more than seconds faster that Tony's 19.78. Tony was the only shooter to record zero Points Down on Stage #3.
As you know, we shot Stage #4 twice. For the purposes of the match score, I took each shooters best time whether it was recorded on Attempte #1 or #2. Everyone shot this stages very accurately. Three shooters managed to shoot this stages with zero points down and the other shooter only had one point down.
Stage #1 Scoring Note. For the purposes of the individual stage, we used the fastest average time. For the purposes of the total match score, we used the total time of all five attempts, plus the total points down. WHY? Well, the points down were accumulated during five shots so they should be added to the total time. Adding them to the best average presents a somewhat skewed perspective of the time. The match standings remain the same no matter which way we added the scores for Stage #1. We just thought that using the full shooting time was more representative of the overall match, however, the results are the same.
We may not be able to process the GoPro video footage because of the camera setting we used. The file sizes are too large. One file, for example, is over 1,5 GIGS! The smaller file was 200 Megabytes! Next time we will set the video down to a lower resolution and hopefully produce files that won't crash our computer.
Thanks for making Monday Match #8 such a great success!
Monday, February 18, 2013
Monday Match #7
Monday Match #7 took place under perfect weather conditions February 18th at the Donga Din shooting range. Gary, Al, Brad and John shot three stages a total of 7 times.
Stage 1 was 8 numbered targets and one six-inch steel plate. The targets were 10 yards from the shooter box. The plate was 13 yards. As the shooter faced uprange, the targets were randomly reshuffled. Three random numbers were drawn from a coffee can. At the buzzer, as the shooter turned, the numbers were called out. The shooter had to shot the targets in order of the numbers called and then shoot them in reverse order before shooting the plate until down.
Stage 2 was four targets at 20 yards from a Bianchi cover structure. At the buzzer, the shooter could shoot from either side of the cover with one round in each target as they became visible. Then the shooter switched to the other side of cover and placed one round in each target and they became visible. Procedural penalties were given if the shooter's foot overstepped the cover line.
Stage 3 was entitled "The Powerball." At the buzzer the shooter had to kneel beside the "bed" and then grab the winning ticket from beneath the "mattress" and then run to the doorway and then down the hall to the front door. Shooters were loaded to 8 rounds each so there would be a mandatory reload from slide lock on this stage, equalizing the difference between the CDP and SSP division pistols. (A full description of The Powerball is at the end of this long blog post.
Note that there are three slideshow videos here: Gary, Al and Brad shooting Stage 1. We took 4,000 photos with the GoPro camera on a one second time lapse interval. For whatever reason, the photo sequences for Stages @ and 3 were uninteresting when converted to video. Therefore we picked out four photos from each of the three stages to show here. Believe it or not, it only took 3 hours to process 4,000 photos! Additional still photos were emailed to each shooter. Thank You for your $15 in donations received.
Gary Shooting Stage #1
Below is Al Shooting Stage #1
Brad Shooting Stage 1
Below are 12 still photos, one each of four shooters in three stages.
Al Stage 1
Brad Stage 1
Gary Stage 1
John Stage 1
Al Stage 2
Brad Stage 2
Al Stage 3
Brad Stage 3
Gary Stage 3
John Stage 3
Here is a description of "The Powerball." This is the same stage we did last spring. Herman plays the same numbers each week. He finally wins. The c-store clerk recognizes Herman's numbers and tells her boyfriend who gets gang together to rob the ticket and burn down Herman's house. Herman, meanwhile, can't sleep and has been sitting beside his bed all night. The Powerball ticket is tucked under his mattress. Two gang bangers break into Herman's bedroom while two more thugs work in the hallway to begin to set fire to the place as another thug stands guard outside. What the gang bangers don't know is that Herman has used his annual vacation time each year to go to Front Sight in Las Vegas to keep his defensive pistol skills sharp. The thugs have met their match!
Stage 1 was 8 numbered targets and one six-inch steel plate. The targets were 10 yards from the shooter box. The plate was 13 yards. As the shooter faced uprange, the targets were randomly reshuffled. Three random numbers were drawn from a coffee can. At the buzzer, as the shooter turned, the numbers were called out. The shooter had to shot the targets in order of the numbers called and then shoot them in reverse order before shooting the plate until down.
Stage 2 was four targets at 20 yards from a Bianchi cover structure. At the buzzer, the shooter could shoot from either side of the cover with one round in each target as they became visible. Then the shooter switched to the other side of cover and placed one round in each target and they became visible. Procedural penalties were given if the shooter's foot overstepped the cover line.
Stage 3 was entitled "The Powerball." At the buzzer the shooter had to kneel beside the "bed" and then grab the winning ticket from beneath the "mattress" and then run to the doorway and then down the hall to the front door. Shooters were loaded to 8 rounds each so there would be a mandatory reload from slide lock on this stage, equalizing the difference between the CDP and SSP division pistols. (A full description of The Powerball is at the end of this long blog post.
Note that there are three slideshow videos here: Gary, Al and Brad shooting Stage 1. We took 4,000 photos with the GoPro camera on a one second time lapse interval. For whatever reason, the photo sequences for Stages @ and 3 were uninteresting when converted to video. Therefore we picked out four photos from each of the three stages to show here. Believe it or not, it only took 3 hours to process 4,000 photos! Additional still photos were emailed to each shooter. Thank You for your $15 in donations received.
Gary Shooting Stage #1
Below is Al Shooting Stage #1
Brad Shooting Stage 1
Below are 12 still photos, one each of four shooters in three stages.
Al Stage 1
Brad Stage 1
Gary Stage 1
John Stage 1
Al Stage 2
Brad Stage 2
Gary Stage 2
John Stage 2Al Stage 3
Brad Stage 3
Gary Stage 3
John Stage 3
Here is a description of "The Powerball." This is the same stage we did last spring. Herman plays the same numbers each week. He finally wins. The c-store clerk recognizes Herman's numbers and tells her boyfriend who gets gang together to rob the ticket and burn down Herman's house. Herman, meanwhile, can't sleep and has been sitting beside his bed all night. The Powerball ticket is tucked under his mattress. Two gang bangers break into Herman's bedroom while two more thugs work in the hallway to begin to set fire to the place as another thug stands guard outside. What the gang bangers don't know is that Herman has used his annual vacation time each year to go to Front Sight in Las Vegas to keep his defensive pistol skills sharp. The thugs have met their match!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)




























