Will The Streak continue?

We haven't missed a Monday Match because of weather in more than two years!  We have been on an amazing roll during that time.  As we noted in early January, the longer The Streak runs, the more likely it is to end.  It's like flipping a coin and coming up heads 30 times in a row.  Sooner or later, it's going to come up tails, even though the odds are always 50-50 per flip.  That's the way it is with such streaks of luck.

So, will The Streak end for the February 3rd Monday Match #6?  Or will The Streak continue?  Right now, we'd have to say it's still the classic 50-50 odds.  A case can be made that The Streak will end.  Likewise, a case can be made The Streak will continue.  Naturally, we will be glued to weather forecasts several times each day as this week evolves.  And, naturally, we will be posting up data, forecasts, speculation and SWAGs here as the week evolves.

They say there's only two type of people who forecast weather: newcomers and fools.  Well, we ain't newcomers so that only leaves one category for us to fall into.

The format for this particular blog post will be very simple.  The narrative above will remain in place.  Below this narrative, you will find a series of updates.  Before each update will be the time and date of the update in parenthesis.  Therefore, the most recent update will always be at the top of the blog post.  Got that?  Ok, here goes:

(UPDATE @ 9:30 am - 02.02.2014)

Well, in the ebb and flow of weather forecasting, it is now beginning to look like it will indeed be precipitating Monday morning.  The graphic above shows the time period ending at 11 am Monday.  Meanwhile, the Flagstaff NWS says:

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC LOW TRACKING SOUTH DOWN  
  THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THIS  
  DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW  
  SHOWERS TO ARIZONA. 

We are still leaning toward staging the match but will not make "The Call" until Sunday evening when the forecasting data for tomorrow is much better defined.

(UPDATE @ 6:45 am - 01.31.2014)

The Monday QPF is looking dry.  Meanwhile, the Flagstaff NWS has this to say about the system moving through Monday: "THE PARENT WAVE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE."  We are proceeding as if the Monday Match will be staged according to plan but "The Call" won't be made until Sunday.  Below is the full NWS Morning Discussion:

  AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
  405 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2014
 
  .SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS FAST
  MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. A COOL AND UNSETTLED
  PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
  AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
  EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
 
  &&
 
  .DISCUSSION...A VERY BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
  WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
  SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL S/WV
  TROUGHS IN THIS BROADER PATTERN WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER DURING
  THIS TIME SPAN...STARTING TODAY.
 
  A S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE THROUGH
  NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND
  WHEN COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...DECENT UPSLOPE
  FLOW AND DECENT JET-LEVEL FORCING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS A
  RESULT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OROGRAPHICALLY
  FAVORED LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
  REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN TODAY...MOSTLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF IN
  THE RAIN-SHADOWED REGIONS OF THE LCR. ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
  ISSUED. WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL END MOST SHOWERS
  THIS EVENING AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
 
  BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
  ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
  BUT A BETTER MICROPHYSICAL PROFILE AND A COLDER AIRMASS. THERE
  SHOULD BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 
  DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE DUE
  MONDAY. THIS THIRD WAVE WILL BE A SIMILAR SCENARIO...A COLD AND
  UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS...BUT THE PARENT WAVE IS
  RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE.

(UPDATE @ 5 pm - 01.30.2014)

Note the bold, underlined, italic words.  This is the crux of the matter.  Frankly, I think the NWS is exaggerating the system.  My intuition is telling me is all bluff and no blow.  However, we have to continue to wait until Sunday to make "The Call."

A BREAK IN THE MAIN THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY 
  ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE 
  ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AROUND A MONDAY TIME-FRAME. 
  BEYOND...SEE NO STRONG REASONS TO STRAY FAR FROM COOL AND UNSETTLED 
  CONDITIONS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AT THIS 
  TIME.

(UPDATE @ 8:30 am - 01.30.2014)

As of Thursday morning, it's looking more likely that we WILL stage the match as scheduled Monday morning.
I don't think there's going to be enough rain to muck up the road or to make things sloppy at the new site.
Meanwhile, I don't think there's much of a chance of rain Monday morning, although we will wait and see.
I won't be making the call to stage or cancel the match until Sunday--but just wanted to say it's looking good.
And, meanwhile, we should have the BUG Match Stage Designs ready to send to you later Thursday.

Here is the meat of this morning's Area Forecast Discussion from the Flagstaff NWS:

 .DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE IS ON THE WAY OUT TODAY AS AN ACTIVE
  SOUTHERN STREAM IMPINGES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A
  FRACTURING AND RETROGRADING HUDSON BAY VORTEX TO ALLOW MORE ACTIVE
  CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE TO
  AFFECT OUR AREA IS SEEN CROSSING THROUGH 130W THIS MORNING WITH A
  DECENT MOISTURE FETCH JUST TO THE SOUTH. PRESSURE FALLS WITH THIS
  WAVE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY AND AN ADVISORY
  IS ALREADY OUT.
 
  THE MOISTURE STREAM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY...WITH
  DYNAMICS AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVING
  FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS STRUCTURE BY FRIDAY AND THE
  MOISTURE WILL LARGELY BE ROBBED BY THE SIERRAS...BUT ENOUGH WILL
  REMAIN TO BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
  AND CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
 
  THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER TRAILING
  SYSTEM DUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING WITH
  THIS SECOND SYSTEM...BUT A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
  PAVE THE WAY FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
 
  A THIRD SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE TRACK FOR
  THIS THIRD SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COOL AND UNSETTLED
  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

(UPDATE @ 4 pm - 01.29.2014)

 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN STREAM 
  WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY EVENING 
  AND FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PROBABLE FRIDAY ACROSS 
  APACHE COUNTY. WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT ESPECIALLY 
  ALONG THE AZ/UT STATE LINE. TWO ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL 
  DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT OUR STATE. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD 
  ARRIVE IN WESTERN AZ SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD 
  OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER 
  AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE FORECAST LIQUID 
  ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS ARE A BLEND OF ECMWF AND 
  GFS...AND ARE LESS THAN 0.10 FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD. ON 
  SUNDAY...PROGS SHOW SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND WE 
  MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE RIM. WE HAVE REMOVED PRECIP 
  CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS BELOW 6500 FEET. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD 
  AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
  MONDAY TIME FRAME AND WE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FOR 
  NOW. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR LOWER THIS WEEKEND THAN WHAT WE 
  HAVE ENJOYED MOST OF THIS MONTH. 

(UPDATE @ 10 am - 01.29.2014)

Well, it's still a little sketchy but we are feeling better about staging the Monday Match.  We don't think it's going to be that wet Monday.  Here's the latest chatter:

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND  
  THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING THURSDAY WILL PRECEDE A   
  SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST  
  FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND  
  PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS STARTING EARLY FRIDAY AND LASTING  
  THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRESSION OF THE HUDSON BAY  
  VORTEX WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHWEST  
  INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND  
  FRIDAY...WITH MANY WEAKER WAVES MOVING THROUGH A MESSY MEAN TROUGH  
  OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH STORM IS RELATIVELY  
  WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED...BUT THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT SHOULD BRING  
  SEVERAL PERIODS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. 

And here's the QPF for that time period:

(UPDATE @ 8:45 am - 01.28.2014)

A PATTERN SHIFT DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE  
  ALONG THE WEST COAST...SHIFTS WEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A  
  STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING TOWARD THE  
  ARIZONA UTAH BORDER. THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL  
  PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH  
  DAYTIME WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH. THIS  
  WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA  
  ON FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER WEATHER  
  SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE  
  SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONCE  
  AGAIN. THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY BOTH OF THESE STORMS  
  WILL ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON THE DRYNESS.  
   
  ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
  REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ENERGY  
  AND MOISTURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA WITH VERY LIGHT  
  PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AT BEST.  

(UPDATE @ 9:30 am - 01.27.2014)

Below is a portion of the narrative from this morning's most recent Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) posted by the Flagstaff NWS Office in Bellemont.  AFDs are updated several times each day.

THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD FOR SEVERAL WEAK PACIFIC STORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ALTHOUGH THIS WEAKENING IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO THE EXTENDED ARIZONA DRY SPELL...BY NO MEANS DOES THIS CHANGE LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PATTERN. FOR NOW WE ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A RATHER WIDE ARRAY OF POTENTIAL POSSIBILITIES...MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS. HOWEVER THE LONGER RANGE MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL POSSIBILITY OF THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH CONTINUED DRY TO NEARLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. 

Source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDFGZ&wfo=FGZ

(UPDATE @ 7:30 pm - 01.26.2014)

We prepped and and posted to Facebook several graphics with commentary Sunday evening.  Rather than attempt to repost each graphic here, we are including a screen shot and a link to the Facebook photo album.  You do not need to be a Facebooker to see the graphics and read the captions.

Here is the link to the album.  Each graphic is captioned:

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.259313814231892.1073741928.100004598250156&type=1&l=73baae9d08